Saturday, May 30, 2015

Back to the boring drawer of doom

That would be Al Gore, former VPOTUS, who told us in October 2012;
This week, our nation has anxiously watched as Hurricane Sandy lashed the East Coast and caused widespread damage--affecting millions. Now more than ever, our neighbors need our help. Please consider donating or volunteering for your local aid organizations.
Yes, keep those donations pouring in, because;
Hurricane Sandy is a disturbing sign of things to come. We must heed this warning and act quickly to solve the climate crisis. Dirty energy makes dirty weather.
However, today, as Insurance Journal reports;
“The environment is as non-conducive for hurricanes as we’ve ever seen,” [Colorado State University] research scientist [Phil] Klotzbach told a crowd of about 150 actuaries at a session titled “Predicting Hurricanes” at the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) Spring Meeting in Colorado Springs.
It's the job of those actuaries to predict likely insured losses, for the setting of premiums. Money...mouth....
An active season needs warmer-than-normal water in the tropical Atlantic. These warmer waters provide more fuel for developing hurricanes. They also create a more unstable atmospheric environment, thereby promoting thunderstorm development, which helps sustain hurricanes.
An anticipated moderate to strong El Nino, the warming of Pacific waters near the equator, reinforces the mild-season prediction. The warm waters create stronger upper-level winds, which “tear apart” storms and forestall hurricane development, he said.
So, less than three years since Al Gore told us to beware of worse things to come, some scientists are saying;
If the forecast proves out, 2015 will be the third straight year of mild hurricane activity. This would be a large anomaly given the Atlantic is considered to be in a 20-plus-year era in which active seasons are the norm. The lull has caused scientists to ask whether the active Atlantic hurricane era has come to an end. The North Atlantic has gotten colder over the past decade and ocean salinity appears to be dropping, both of which would indicate that lower hurricane activity may be in store for the Atlantic basin.

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