Wednesday, February 19, 2014

From Kate's lips to Casey's ear

It sounds like Bill Clinton parsing the meaning of 'is', says THE ECONOMIST Casey Mulligan. That's the key to understanding Kathleen Sebelius's bizarre claim, that every economist will tell you Obamacare has had no effect on jobs; it hasn't been law for very long.

Mulligan also weighs in on the combination punches that Obamacare and an increased minimum wage will have on employment. No surprise, as he's an economist conversant with the Laws of Supply and Demand, he thinks there are strong disincentives to employment there. And, he hasn't even had time to read the new CBO report yet (as of the time of the interview linked to above). That reads, in part;
Once fully implemented in the second half of 2016, the $10.10 option would reduce total employment by about 500,000 workers, or 0.3 percent, CBO projects (see the table below). As with any such estimates, however, the actual losses could be smaller or larger; in CBO’s assessment, there is about a two-thirds chance that the effect would be in the range between a very slight reduction in employment and a reduction in employment of 1.0 million workers
Or, Kate could just read Paul Krugman's blog, where he admits that Obamacare will reduce employment (he thinks that's a good thing!). The point being that there is no shortage of ECONOMISTS who will tell Sec'y Sebelius the exact opposite of what she claimed in her press conference.

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