Monday, July 28, 2014

Cry me a rio, James

Bill Clinton's political strategist James Carville always said he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market, since it was so powerful;
Argentine bonds slid to a five-week low on Monday as the clock ticked toward what could be the country's second default in 13 years.

Argentina's dollar bonds due 2033 fell to 81.375 cents on the dollar, a five-week low and down from as high as 90 cents on the dollar as recently as Thursday.

...."The market is starting to crack," said Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America strategy at Jefferies. "I think we're still heading lower. The market had been holding out that there could be a last-minute deal."

Ms. Morden said a survey of investors by Jefferies showed 57% expect Argentina to default. She said she personally put that probability at 85%.
Economic reality isn't optional.

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