...a ghastly set of circumstances is coming together to form an inevitable reality – that of Greece being ejected from the euro zone (a forced “Grexit”), which wouldn't be caused by a conscious decisions, but would be the result of a huge accident (“Graccident").Because;
Dogma, morality and blind spots are playing a much greater role, obscuring economic and financial realities.Tell us something we didn't know, Mohamed.
Chances are...awfully bad;
Putting all this together leads me to postulate today a 45/10/45 probability distribution: There is a 45 percent chance that a last minute messy compromise allows the muddling-through to continue; a 10 percent chance that a meaningful policy breakthrough will be achieved, and a 45 percent chance that the outcome is a Graccident in which both the Greek government and its European partners lose control of the situation. Under this third scenario, a series of Greek payment defaults, bank runs and the imposition of capital controls would force Greece out of the single currency.Even the worst among us can be a good bad example.