Friday, October 5, 2012

Circle the wagons

Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor say that if we call some recessions that have featured slow recoveries 'financial', then we can say that financial recessions feature slow recoveries.  Who can argue!

By this reckoning the US has done quite well, steering out of the to-be-expected financial recession range based on the inherited level of excess credit, especially if the shadow system is considered. Most importantly a deep financial recession was avoided at the outset, and this level effect remained intact.
Seeing this US outperformance it may be tempting for readers to map the paths into policy shifts. The extraordinary, coordinated central bank and fiscal actions of 2008–09, both globally and in the US (Fed liquidity and QE1 programs and the ARRA stimulus); and then the arguably premature tapering of such policy supports (Fed dithering over QE/twist programs, and the phase out of ARRA with no further stimulus). We think such conjectures represent fertile ground for future research.

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