The 1954 Fall Term had begun. ....The University of Wisconsin's chief chartist is busy;
...the bestowal of a particularly generous grant was allowing the renowned Waindell psychiatrist, Dr. Rudolph Aura, to apply to ten thousand elementary school pupils the so-called Fingerbowl Test, in which the child is asked to dip his index in cups of colored fluids whereupon the proportion between length of digit and wetted part is measured and plotted in all kinds of fascinating graphs.
I have been stressing the international implications of a potential interest rate increase as a rationale for deferring monetary tightening.Which--give him a few minutes;
This is actually a harder question to answer than one would think.You don't know the half of it, guy.
A regression (in first differences) over the 199M03-2015M08 period yields a statistically insignificant negative coefficient on the interest differential, with zero adjusted R-squared. Augmenting with VIX leads to an increase of adjusted R-squared to 0.15, but no change in the coefficient on the interest differential (the explanatory power is provided by the VIX).Why not use squirrel entrails mixed with;
As I’ve pointed out before, the US dollar does seem to be correlated with the shadow Fed funds rate. Without a good measure of rest-of-world interest rates, I use the shadow rate for the euro area.
Eye of newt, and toe of frog,That would yield every bit as useful a conclusion as;
Wool of bat, and tongue of dog,
Adder's fork, and blind-worm's sting,
Lizard's leg, and owlet's wing,
Δet = 0.0014 + 1.550Δ(it-it*) + 0.121ΔVIXt + 0.818Δ(it-1-it-1*) + 0.090ΔVIXt-1 + utYou can take it to the bank.
Adj-R2 = 0.52, SER = 0.008, Nobs = 78, DW = 1.54. bold face denotes statistical significance at the 10% msl using HAC robust standard errors.
The cumulative impact of a one percentage point interest rate increase is 2.33.