Ban the bomb

Remember Nuclear Winter? Then you should hate Vladimir Putin, say two economists (Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gérard Roland);

In 1994, Ukraine voluntarily gave up the 3rd largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. No other country has done it. Ukraine’s act of good will was heralded as a major success of efforts to limit proliferation of nuclear weapons in the world. In exchange, Russia, the US and the U.K.— and later France and China —guaranteed the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. Now one of the guarantor countries — Russia — is invading Ukraine and other guarantor countries appear unable to stop the aggression.

In light of this, how can one credibly guarantee the sovereignty and integrity of countries protected by non-proliferation and military treaties? How will other countries under the umbrella of various US security agreements—such as Japan, South Korea or NATO nations— perceive this inability of the US to live up to its guarantees? The most likely response of potentially threatened countries will be to rearm, thereby potentially starting an arms race.

Many countries – including Ukraine – have the technical capacity to rapidly develop nuclear weapons, as well as other weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them. A more militarised world, along with increased uncertainty about the willingness and ability of the US and its allies to enforce security guarantees, will raise the frequency of armed regional conflicts, as well as the associated probability of inadvertent global war. The invasion of Crimea may thus trigger a chain of events that threaten world peace.

Putin Proliferation.